Energy Market Impacts of Nuclear Power Phase-Out Policies
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- CICERO Working Papers 
After the Fukushima disaster in March 2011 safety concerns have escalated and policies towards nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the effect of nuclear power phase-out on regional electricity prices. We consider 4 scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear industry using a multiple region, multiple sector global general equilibrium model. Non-nuclear power production follows the New Policies scenario of the World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2010). Phase-out in Germany and Switzerland increases electricity prices of OECD-Europe moderately by 2-3 per cent early on to 4-5 per cent by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. If all regions shut down old plants built before 2011, North America, OECD-Europe and Japan face increasing electricity prices in the range of 23-28 per cent in 2035. These price increases illustrate the incentives for further investments in renewable electricity or improved technologies in nuclear power production.