• Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts? 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Gerdrup, Karsten; Jore, Anne Sofie; Smith, Christie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMAR Working Paper Series;2/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out-of-sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then ...
    • How does monetary policy respond to exchange rate 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Halvorsen, Jørn I. (CAMAR Working Paper Series;1/2010, Working paper, 2010)
      This paper analyzes how monetary policy has responded to exchange rate movements in six open economies, paying particular attention to the two-way interaction between monetary policy and the exchange rate. We address this ...
    • Nowcasting GDP in Real-Time: A Density Combination Approach 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Gerdrup, Karsten R.; Jore, Anne Sofie; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, ...
    • Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time Out-of Sample Examination 

      Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rothman, Philip (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      We study the real-time predictive content of crude oil prices for US real GDP growth through a pseudo out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting exercise. Comparing our benchmark model "without oil" against alternatives "with oil," ...
    • The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2011, Working paper, 2011)
      This paper bridges the new open economy factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) studies with the recent findings in the business cycle synchronization literature emphasizing the importance of regional factors. That is, we estimate ...
    • What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies 

      Aastveit, Knut Are; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We analyze the importance of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil over the last two decades. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows us to ...
    • House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Jacobsen, Dag Henning (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      We analyze the role of house and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S. using a structural VAR model. The VAR is identifed using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) ...
    • Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets 

      Lombardi, Marco; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2012, Working paper, 2012)
      In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such ...
    • China’s Savings Multiplier 

      Mehlum, Halvor; Torvik, Ragnar; Valente, Simone (CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      China’s growth is characterized by massive capital accumulation, made possible by high and increasing domestic savings. In this paper we develop a model with the aim of explaining why savings rates have been high and ...
    • Local Natural Resource Curse? 

      Borge, Lars-Erik; Parmer, Pernille; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;5/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      The large variation in revenues among Norwegian local governments can partly be explained by revenues collected from hydropower production. This revenue variation, combined with good data availability, can be used to ...
    • Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markov-Switching Structural Investigation 

      Alstadheim, Ragna; Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;9/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their ...
    • Voting When the Stakes Are High 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Fiva, Jon H.; Natvik, Gisle J. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Most theories of voter behavior predict that electoral participation will be higher in elections where more is at stake. We test this prediction by studying how participation is affected by exogenous variation in local ...
    • Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two-speed economy 

      Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productiv- ity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian ...
    • Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Bank Deposits in Tax Havens 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Johannesen, Niels; Lassen, David Dreyer; Paltseva, Elena (CAMP Working Paper Series;7/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      Do political institutions limit rent-seeking by politicians? To address this question, we study the transformation of petroleum rents into hidden wealth using unique data on bank deposits in tax havens. We find that ...
    • Why Do Voters Dismantle Checks and Balances? Extensions and Robustness. (Online appendix) 

      Acemoglu, Daron; Robinson, James A.; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2013, Working paper, 2013)
      In this online appendix we extend the basic model in the paper in several directions, discuss the robustness of the results, and moreover what new mechanisms our extensions implies as compared to the ones in the basic model.
    • Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model 

      Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (CAMP Working Papers Series; 8/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Interactions between eurozone and United States booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model. The model is well suitable for a multi-country cyclical ...
    • Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model 

      Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; van Dijk, Herman K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Interactions between eurozone and United States booms and busts and among major eurozone economies are analyzed by introducing a panel Markov-switching VAR model. The model is well suitable for a multi-country cyclical ...
    • The Fiscal Incentive of GHG Cap and Trade: Permits May Be Too Cheap and Developed Countries May Abate Too Little 

      Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Greaker, Mads (CAMP Working Papers Series;9/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      The theoretical justification for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. However, ...
    • Petro Populism 

      Matsen, Egil; Natvik, Gisle J.; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      We aim to explain petro populism|the excessive use of oil revenues to buy political support. To reap the full gains of natural resource income politicians need to remain in office over time. Hence, even a rent-seeking ...
    • Sectorial interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies 

      Bergholt, Drago; Sveen, Tommy (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2014, Working paper, 2014)
      Existing DSGE models are not able to reproduce the observed influence of international business cycles on small open economies. We construct a two-sector New Keynesian model to address this puzzle. The set-up takes into ...