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Nr 1/2010 og nr 2/2010 ble utgitt under navnet CAMAR Working Paper Series med ISSN 1892-2198. Fom nr 1/2011 skiftet serien navn til CAMP Working Paper Series med ISSN 1893-4811.

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  • The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price 

    Gundersen, Thomas S. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7, Working paper, 2018-04)
    I examine the role of the U.S. shale oil boom in driving global oil prices. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that identifies separate oil supply shocks for the U.S. and OPEC, I find that U.S. supply ...
  • Business cycle narratives 

    Larsen, Vegard H.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6, Working paper, 2018-04)
    This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the ...
  • Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Financial Time Series 

    Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;5, Working paper, 2018-03)
    This paper studies the predictability of cryptocurrencies time series. We compare several alternative univariate and multivariate models in point and density forecasting of four of the most capitalized series: Bitcoin, ...
  • Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered 

    Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;4, Working paper, 2018-02)
    In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the ...
  • Predicting the Volatility of Cryptocurrency Time–Series 

    Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;3, Working paper, 2018-02)
    Cryptocurrencies have recently gained a lot of interest from investors, central banks and governments worldwide. The lack of any form of political regu- lation and their market far from being “efficient”, require new forms ...
  • Markov Switching Panel with Network Interaction Effects 

    Agudze, Komla Mawulom; Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco (CAMP Working Paper Series;1, Working paper, 2018-01)
    The paper introduces a new dynamic panel model for large data sets of time series, each of them characterized by a series-specific Markov switching process. By introducing a neighbourhood system based on a network ...
  • Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration 

    Gianfreda, Angelica; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Rossini, Luca (CAMP Working Paper Series;2, Working paper, 2018-01)
    This paper compares alternative univariate versus multivariate models, probabilistic versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, with and without ...
  • Modelling Occasionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching 

    Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;9, Working paper, 2017-12)
    Occasionally binding constraints are part of the economic landscape: for instance recent experience with the global financial crisis has highlighted the gravity of the lower bound constraint on interest rates; mortgagors ...
  • Residential investment and recession predictability 

    Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andr K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8, Working paper, 2017-12)
    We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with di↵erent ...
  • Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in regional housing markets 

    Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, André K. (CAMP Working Paper Series;7, Working paper, 2017-12)
    The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends both on the nature of the shock – expansionary versus contractionary – and on city-specific housing supply elasticities. We test and find supporting ...
  • Residential investment and recession predictability 

    Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andre K.; Herstad, Eyo I. (CAMP Working Paper Series;8, Working paper, 2017-12)
    We assess the importance of residential investment in predicting economic recessions for an unbalanced panel of 12 OECD countries over the period 1960Q1–2014Q4. Our approach is to estimate various probit models with di↵erent ...
  • Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability 

    Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Larsen, Vegard H.; Maih, Junior (CAMP Working Paper Series;No. 6/2017, Working paper, 2017-11)
    We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic insta- bility. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of ...
  • Asset returns, news topics and media effects 

    Høghaug Larsen, Vegard; Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP;5, Working paper, 2017-09-19)
    We decompose the textual data in a daily Norwegian business newspaper into news topics and investigate their predictive and causal role for asset prices. Our three main findings are: (1) a one unit innovation in the news ...
  • Components of Uncertainty 

    Larsen, Vegard Høghaug (CAMP Working Paper Series;4/2017, Working paper, 2017)
    Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identfication strategy to ...
  • Should Developing Countries Establish Petroleum Funds? 

    Torvik, Ragnar (CAMP Working Paper Series;3/2017, Working paper, 2017)
    Many natural-resource-abundant countries have established petroleum funds as part of their strategy to manage their resource wealth. This paper examines reasons that such funds may be established, discusses how these funds ...
  • Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota 

    Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Nordvik, Frode Martin; Rohrer, Maximilian (CAMP Working Paper Series;2/2017, Working paper, 2017)
    We analyse if output exibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, we ask to what extent shale oil producers respond to price incentives by changing completion of new wells as well as oil ...
  • Approximating time varying structural models with time invariant structures 

    Canova, Fabio; Ferroni, Filippo; Matthes, Christian (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2016, Working paper, 2016)
    The paper studies how parameter variation affects the decision rules of a DSGE model and structural inference. We provide diagnostics to detect parameter variations and to ascertain whether they are exogenous or endogenous. ...
  • Oil and Civil Conflict: On and Off (Shore) 

    Andersen, Jørgen Juel; Nordvik, Frode Martin; Tesei, Andrea (CAMP Working Paper Series;1/2017, Working paper, 2017)
    We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls increase the probability of conflict in ...
  • Do central banks respond timely to developments in the global economy? 

    Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Thorsrud, Leif Anders; Zahiri, Sepideh Khayati (CAMP Working Paper Series;8/2016, Working paper, 2016)
    Our analysis suggests; they do not! To arrive at this conclusion we construct a real-time data set of interest rate projections from central banks in three small open economies; New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden, and analyze ...
  • Nowcasting using news topics Big Data versus big bank 

    Thorsrud, Leif Anders (CAMP Working Paper Series;6/2016, Working paper, 2016)
    The agents in the economy use a plethora of high frequency information, including news media, to guide their actions and thereby shape aggregate economic fluctuations. Traditional nowcasting approches have to a relatively ...

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