Risk influencing factors in maritime accidents : An exploratory statistical analysis of the Norwegian Maritime Authority incident database
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- Rapporter 
This report is an exploratory statistical analysis of the Norwegian Maritime Authority’s database, using data on groundings, collisions, allisions fires/explosions and some data on capsizings in Norwegian waters from 1981 through 2014. The analysis is part of the Norwegian Ship Risk Model project. The statistical analysis is divided into two parts. The first part is a descriptive analysis, which identifies common traits in accidents. Vessel types are broken down into 12 categories. Fires/explosions are most common on small fishing vessels in outer coastal waters in Northern regions, with a notable proportion happening in dock. Groundings are most common on cargo vessels in narrow coastal waters in Northern regions, and in the dark. Capsizings typically involve small fishing and cargo vessels in outer coastal waters, and feature strong winds and higher seas. Collisions are most frequent among fishing and break bulk vessels in outer coastal waters. Allisions are common among medium sized passenger vessels in the harbour area. The second part of the analysis uses multinomic regression to describe variation between accidents. Accident types vary modestly between vessel types, gross tonnages and length, but substantially between waters. Groundings are associated with narrow coastal waters, collisions with outer coastal, allisions with port areas, and fires/explosions are associated with vessels in dock. Weather has limited effect, although collisions are ten times more likely than other accidents under no visibility. High vessel damage severity was primarily associated with shorter vessels. We were not able to explain much variation in injuries and fatalities. The results indicate a strong need to connect accident data with normalized traffic data to identify risk influencing factors with more certainty.