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Inflation dynamics in Vietnam

Hien, Thi Thu Le
Master thesis
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Hien Thi Thu Le-Master Thesis in Economics 2011.pdf (1.864Mb)
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http://hdl.handle.net/11250/187293
Issue date
2011-11-10
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  • Master's theses (HH) [618]
Abstract
Inflation has been a persistence problem in Vietnam and it needs a well-developed practical

model which can capture the important driving forces to analyze inflation dynamics in

Vietnam. Despite the vast research of hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve on developed and

developing countries, little is known about the case of Vietnam. This thesis contributes to

literature by investigating the possibility of hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve in explaining

inflation dynamics in Vietnam and examining what is the main causes of high inflation in

Vietnam. The output is calculated from the difference between actual GDP and potential GDP

which is de-trended by Hodrick Prescott Filter. The hybrid NKPC is estimated by Generalized

Method of Moments, in which future inflation expectation is examined by actual value. The

findings show that the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve fits Vietnamese data very well.

Inertial inflation and inflation expectations are both important determination of inflation

persistence. The output gap also contributes to the inflation dynamics. The estimation is

extended by include global oil price and global food price and the results supports to the roles

of these two variables in inflation process. The study will contribute to future research on

similar topics.

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