Extension of the match-mismatch hypothesis to predator-controlled systems
Journal article, Peer reviewed
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Original versionDurant JM, Hjermann DØ, Falkenhaug T, Gifford DJ and others (2013) Extension of the match-mismatch hypothesis to predator-controlled systems. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 474:43-52 10.3354/meps10089
Differential change in the phenology of predators and prey is a potentially important climate-mediated mechanism influencing populations. The match-mismatch hypothesis describes the effect of predator-prey population synchrony on predator development and survival and is used to describe climate effects on ecological patterns and processes in prey-controlled terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We evaluated the hypothesis by considering the broader effects of predator-prey synchrony on prey standing stock and survival in addition to its well documented effects on the predator. Specifically, we suggest that an increase in asynchrony between predator and prey peak abundance can lead to increased survival and potentially increased recruitment of the prey in some systems. Using generalized additive models, we demonstrated that the matchmismatch hypothesis can be used not only for prey-controlled systems, but also for predatorcontrolled systems.