Evaluation of candidate management plans, with reference to North-East Arctic Cod
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We here discuss the scope, nature and quality standards of simulation models that may be used in order to evaluate proposed or candidate management plans, including their parameters (reference points). A recently proposed management plan for North-East Arctic cod is used as a working example. We discuss some generic designs of management plans, in particular with respect to performance in relation to different kinds of objectives, including adherence to the precautionary approach. We further discuss simulation tools to evaluate the performance of management plans and to select appropriate values for their key parameters, and suggest some quality criteria for such tools. In particular, we stress the need to have unbiased stochastic parameters and to have realistic levels of errors in the basis for future decisions according to the plan. A new management plan for North-East Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) was agreed by the management agency (Joint Norwegian/Russian Fishery Commission) in 2002. The main elements in this plan are: • Estimate the average TAC-level for the 3 following years based on Fpa. TAC for the following year is set on the basis of this average TAC level. • The following year the estimation of the TAC-level for the next 3 years is repeated based on updated information on stock development. However, the change of TAC from one year to the next cannot be more than +/-10%. This relatively complex plan is used as an example, and aspects that need to be considered in order to evaluate how it can be expected to perform, are discussed.
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